Population

I will be writing a more detailed analysis of population trends in the next newsletter, but in the meantime wanted to comment on the recent blog post by our friends at CT Data about one of the Census Bureau's surveys being wrong in 2022.

Connecticut is a state of 3.6m people, a relatively small State representing about 1% of the US population. But getting detail on population trends can be frustrating. There are a variety of data sources, often derived from survey based approaches, which means at times different sources can paint different pictures, even directionally.

Back to the problematic census bureau findings. That survey had suggested 57k new folks moved to CT from other states. However, that same survey also suggested that our total population went up by 21k. Both of those things simply cannot be true (or, I supposed, it would be more correct to say there was a near zero statistical probability that they both be true) because that would have suggested that we had a lot more deaths than births (what they call "natural change;" we didn't) or that we experienced international outmigration (which never happens; see the chart below).

The erratum published by the Census Bureau said that while the 57k number was an error, the total population figures were correct. That is consistent with what we have seen from other sources, so we continue to be comfortable saying that we have gained tens of thousands of new residents since the pandemic, and ours is the only state in the region that has experienced consistent population growth over that time period. That is also consistent with population trends summarized by a separate program at the census bureau, the PEP.

The really important point is the change in trajectory from pre-pandemic trends to post-pandemic trends. After years of population declines prior to the pandemic, we've now seen multiple years of consistent population growth. More on that later.